Holy Bull G3

1/30/11 Holy BullG3 - Gulfstream Park 1 mile on the dirt

Nominations Past Performances

The first major Derby prep at Gulfstream Park which will set up as a prep race for the Florida DerbyG1 on April 3rd the last stop in Florida on the way to Louisville.  Last year Winslow Homer won this race but fell off the derby trail with a cannon bone injury. Last year did see two eventual Derby starters in Jackson Bend(12th) and Homeboykris(16).

Top Candidates:

Boys at Toscanova- Currently sits #2 in my power rankings continues to run in graded stakes races and will show if he belongs at the top or will play second fiddle to Uncle Mo leading up to the derby.  Has been training well at Gulfstream and is prime to run a big race.

Will look to push the pace coming out of the gate and should stalk the leaders early(most likely will include Mucho Macho Man). Will not enter race

Mucho Macho Man- Sits just outside the top 5 and will land on the top 10 once this race concludes. Has ran second to To Honor and Serve(#4) the last two times out and catches a break from him but now must challenge Boys and others.Has trained well here at GP since being shipped to Florida.

Will likely push the pace early and see if anyone can catch him.

Gourmet Dinner- Ran into a wall of tough competitors in the Cash Call Futurity in December at Hollywood Park after a win in the Delta Downs Jackpot.  Was passed by two late (JP’s Gusto and Clubhouse ride) and will see if he belongs on the derby trail.

Would benefit from a fast early pace and looks to pick off horses late and would need to stay away from going 4 wide again as well as other traffic problems. Would give exotic honors but would need a perfect trip to win.

Black N Beauty- This Zayat Stable and Dale Romans trained colt won a allowance race here in early January and looks to make a big step up here. Jockey Kent Desormeaux looks to be aboard again looking to take the lead early.

Looks to be up front with Boys and Mucho pushing a hard opening pace.

Post Position and Analysis-

1. Gourmet Dinner- Looking to get back onto dirt after his lack luster performance on the synthetic track at Hollywood in the Cash Call Futurity. This horse currently sits # in graded earnings with $660,000 which locks this horse to make a start in the Derby.

2. Major Gain- A stalking closer like Gourmet Dinner looking for first win on dirt after racing well on the plastic track. Fluctuating speed figures have me worried.

3. Printing Press- This stalking colt out of Tapit has raced most of his career on the Jersey Shore at Monmouth park winning 1 out of 4 races there. Ran here Jan 7 finnishing second to Black N Beauty. Seems to be beaten up by better every time out and would need a perfect trip and a few scratches to take.

4. Black N Beauty- Ran a monster of a race gate to wire here on Jan 7 beating Printing Press by 2 1/2 lenghts with Kent Desoumeaux.  This is a race that will show if this colt belongs in stakes competition and feel I feel that this colt will have a huge showing and get right on the Derby Trail.

5. Ribo Bobo- Another horse in the race that like to set back in the pack waiting to fire at the 1/4 pole. Seems to be lacking in class which is evident by loosing to Manicaro the last two times out and Astrology at Churchill Downs in October.

6. Leave of Absence- Lightly raced as a 2 year old finnished 2nd here at Gulfstream on Jan 8th in the Spectacular Bird Stakes. Raj Maragh will be back aboard and will be interested to see if he sends Leave of Absence to the front like he did at Aquduct or take him to the back of the pack last time out here at Gulfsteam. For this horse to contend I would like him to be on the front as there seems to be little in the way of pace,however, strectching out to this mile distance may seem difficult.

7. Mucho Macho Man- Likely to be the morning line favorite and on the pace early. Let just off my top 5 power rankings will look to show he deserves higher. Looks like the one to beat. In great form with 2 bullet works at GP since arriving in January.

8.Sweet Ducky- Turns back to his prefered distance where he went 2 for 2 at Monmouth. Seems to like the mid pack position hoping to pick off weaker runners late. Has been training very well in 2011 with 2 bullets at 5 furlongs.  May close out exotics.

9. Dialed In- Broke maiden last time out(msw) in only career start back in November at Churchill Downs. Seems to be getting bigger and better as time oes by may not be the best horse now but come May could be a monster. I will call him a closer since that is the only data I can draw on him.

Posted in Holy Bull G3 | Leave a comment

Sham G3

1/15/11 Sham G3 -Santa Anita 1 1/16m on the dirt Video Replay

Good win for Tapizar as he pushed the pace early drew clear and ran nearly gate to wire earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Race only had 5 entrants with only one currently on the Derby trail in Clubhouse Ride. Clubhouse Ride sat back and stalked the pace but was no match for Tapizar. Both horses may be pointed to the Robert Lewis Stakes on February 12th over Santa Anita’s new dirt track.

Posted in Sham G2 1/15/11- Santa Anita 1 1/16m on the dirt | Leave a comment

2011 Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1. Uncle MoUncle Mo-  Undefeated winner of the ’10 Breeders Cup Juvenile @ CD is on his way to an Eclipse award for the 2 yr old males. Trained by Todd Pletcher, winner of the 2010 Derby with Super Saver,  this colt has been shipped to Florida to train with his sights on the Tampa Bay Derby March 12th.  This is the route that Pletcher took last year with Super Saver (3rd) to kick off this horse’s 3 yr old season and this would seem logical to do once again. Uncle Mo has been under jockey John R. Velazquez who has long been a preferred race rider for Pletcher who trained horses (Devil may Care ’10 Kentucky Derby) and I don’t see anyone else aboard for the first Saturday in May.

Last Race: Breeders Cup Juvenile-G1

Next potential race: Tampa Bay Derby-G3 (1 1/16m) 3/12/11 Wood Memorial-G1  Aqueduct (1 1/8m) 4/9/11

2. Boys at Tosconova seemed to have all the pub leading into Breeders Cup day. This horse has run well at CD twice now where he finished second in both his debut race in the Kentucky Juvenile-G3 as well as the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  This horse seems to get better the longer the race so I feel  the Derby Distance  could work out well  for this colt.  Looking towards the Derby,  this horse has the ability to win from an outside post as that seems to the the position he strikes from.  Boys is trained by Rick Dutrow, winner of the 2008 Derby with Big Brown, and has had Ramon A. Dominguez in the irons every start since the 2nd place finish in the Kentucky Juvenile. Looks like Boys will show that he deserves to be in the top echelon of 3yr olds if entered in the Holy Bull G3 at Gulfstream Park on January 30th. This is still not the distance to best suit this horse, but it could be a good prep for his future races.

Last race: Breeders Cup Juvenile-G1 Next potential race: Holy Bull-G3(1m) 1/30/11

3. Tapizar- How can I not put a horse who’s won his last two races including  the first graded stakes race of the year in the Sham StakesG3 at Santa Anita on January 15th. Tapizar dominated this light field of 5, winning nearly gate to wire which is impressive.   These  two wins were run at t 1 1/16 mile as a 2yr old and young 3yr old. This horse may possess the tactical speed to win the Derby, but must show the public this against tougher in his prep races up to the Derby.  May be the horse to beat out west or just a California dreamer.

Last race: Sham Stakes(1 1/16 mile) 1/15/11

Next potential race: Robert B. Lewis StakesG2(SA) 2/12/11 San FelipeG2(SA) 3/12/11

4. To Honor and Serve- This Bernardini colt as a 2 year old, has won 3 of 4 starts finishing second his his debut loosing to Astrology across the 3 big New York tracks. Has run against very tough competition beating potential Derby starter Mucho Macho Man the last two times out and may be considering running in the Fountain of YouthG2 at Gulfstream Park February 16.  Has a strong running style and has a shot at winning Bill Mott his first Derby.  The biggest question is who would ride this horse in the Derby as John Velasquez will be aboard Uncle Mo. Is this be the colt that Calvin Borel would get aboard on a quest for 3 in a row.

Last race: RemsenG2 (AQU 1 1/8m) Next potential race: Fountain of Youth G2 (GP)  2/26/11

5. Jaycito- Hard to ignore the connections here and has ran against Derby quality horses its whole life.  Have to throw out his disastrous last race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, as bad as it may sound he ran well at the end to get up for 7th.  Nice long strides loves to sit in the stalking position.

Last race: Breeders Cup Juvenile-G1 Next potential race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes G2 2/12/11

Also receiving votes-  Mucho Macho Man, J P’s Gusto, Soldat, Astrology

Rankings will be updated next Sunday after the running of the Holy Bull next Sunday 1/30/ The rankings will be expanded once more stakes races have been completed.

Posted in 2011 Kentucky Derby Power Rankings | Leave a comment

January Prep Races

1/15/11 Sham G3 -Santa Anita 1 1/16m on the dirt Video Replay

 

1/30/11 Holy BullG3 – Gulfstream Park 1 mile on the dirt

Nominations Past Performances

Posted in 2011 Kentucky Derby Prep Races, January Prep Races | Leave a comment

Hello world!

Welcome to WordPress.com. This is your first post. Edit or delete it and start blogging!

Posted in 2011 Kentucky Derby Power Rankings, Uncategorized | 1 Comment